The sluggish textile industry in the third quarter may be reshuffled by the “quagmire”

According to statistics from the business community mass index, in the third quarter of the year, the entire textile industry seems to have entered the freezing point. In the cotton textile industry chain, the price of cotton continued to fall in the early stage, and the lowest point reached a 20% decline. Even if there are signs of a slight recovery at the end of the season, there is no doubt that the cotton market is still at a low range. The polyester fiber industry chain took polyester as an example and took a roller coaster ride. The upstream cost was favorable to support prices rising all the way, but after mid-September, many unfavorable factors highlighted the price of the industrial chain. The cocoon industry is plunged all the way down. The market is even more depressing, with a drop of 20%.

In general, the “golden nine silver ten” phenomenon in the textile industry in the third quarter has not appeared, resulting in the current downturn in the textile industry as a whole, mainly related to costs, supply and demand, policy decisions, and the external environment of the external industry. Although textile exports increased statistically year-on-year, profits declined. With the constant change of influencing factors, the reshuffle of the textile industry has once again struck.

Analysis of the factors affecting the price of the textile market in the third quarter First, the cost factors of the industrial chain. The increase in the added value of product production, production costs have also increased year by year, the rise and fall of the textile raw material market are closely related to the upstream costs.

1. The chemical fiber industry chain that rose first and then fell: In mid-September, it was a turning point in the price fluctuation of the polyester industry chain. Before that, the price rose all the time, mainly due to the favorable effect of the PX price high operation and the centralized overhaul of the PTA device, which caused the PTA price to continue to operate at a high level. It also provides favorable support to the downstream polyester industry. After mid-September, under the influence of unfavorable factors such as the retreat of the PX theme, the fall in the PTA price, and weaker downstream demand, the price of the industrial chain declined.

2. Quarterly plunge in the cotton textile market and the silk market. In mid-August, the cotton textile industry was a turning point in price fluctuations. In July, the price of cotton in the upper reaches continued to fall. There was no sign of recovery in downstream demand, and it was difficult to quickly digest upstream stocks. Cotton companies' willingness to cut prices and sell prices increased, and cotton yarns affected the price drop significantly. Until the August purchase and storage policy gave the cotton market a strong boost, the cotton price rose steadily, the downstream cotton yarn market improved slightly, and the goods did not improve significantly. However, the prices stabilized and the market sentiment temporarily improved; the silk industry, At the end of the Spring Festival and the autumn market scale, Xia Yun in the middle has apparently little effect. The purchase price of Chunyu in June once reached 50 yuan/kg. Under the backing of dry cocoon, the turmoil in the silk reel market was not obvious. As the news fell afterwards, the cockroach that had swarmed caused silk stocks to increase, and prices began to fall.

Textile raw material supply and demand situation 1 . Supply situation: The chemical fiber industry has a centralized overhaul of equipment in this quarter, and manufacturers have low inventory levels. The trading volume in the cotton market is not obvious at present, and with the listing of new cotton, cotton will be more abundant in the market. After the spring and summer stocks were listed on the market, the silk reeling factory increased its production, and the supply in the third quarter was sufficient. However, according to the statistics of the first eight months, the export volume was significantly reduced.

2. Demand: Textile companies are mainly affected by rising labor costs, *** appreciation, raw material price fluctuations, and ** interest rate increases, which increase the company's operating costs, and the demand for raw material procurement is not obvious. Can be seen from the import volume.

Industry-related policy decisions affect 1, lint storage. In September, after the lint market began to store and store, the market has produced a stalemate that is zero consecutive transactions of storage for more than ten days, which shows that businesses and farmers are dissatisfied with the closing price and wait and see. However, after storage and storage have had a favorable effect on the cotton market at the end of the season, the signs of recovery of the cotton market in the end of the season can play a certain psychological role.

2. Factory wire collection and storage. Like the lint market, because of the drastic decline in prices in the silk market, the state introduced a policy of stock collection and storage. On September 9, 2011, the State Silk and Silk Office issued an announcement to publicly purchase silk from the National Reserve Factory. It is worth mentioning that this collection is "quantitative non-pricing," and in this period, it is obvious that it has played a role in boosting the competition of silk and silk.

Impact of the market environment In terms of the entire textile industry, exports and consumption in Europe and the United States have a huge impact on the industry. The European debt issue has not been resolved. The weak stalemate in the global economic recession has not improved. Market sentiment is still cautiously optimistic after the trend panic has dropped. Therefore, the downturn in the textile market is also expected. At present, there is a news that Italy's exports to the United States have declined, because the US consumer product safety rules pose obstacles to the sale of lightweight silk fabrics, and customers prefer to choose fiber materials that are not subject to flammability requirements. This also shows that foreign markets are increasingly demanding textiles, and there has been a lack of innovative domestic textiles, and the market is shrinking step by step.

At present, it is difficult for textile companies to accept orders, and inventory pressure is high. At the same time, due to rising labor costs, *** appreciation, raw material price fluctuations, and ** interest rate increases, many negative factors have led to the domestic textile industry will once again fall into the “quagmire” of reshuffle. "Silver 10" market will also be difficult to achieve. According to the classified products, Xia Ting, an analyst from PTA, believes that the international crude oil market is still in the adjustment market. PX market conditions continue to decline, and the PTA market still shows a weak adjustment trend. Li Sheh-heng, an analyst at Business Club, also gave advice on the cotton market: Cotton purchase and storage policies play an important role in increasing the enthusiasm of cotton farmers and avoiding risks in the textile industry. However, from the current point of view, it will take time for textile companies to emerge from the predicament. It is expected that in the future, driven by rising costs and inflation, there is a greater possibility that prices will fluctuate upward and rebound.

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