Using Data to Analyze the Causes and Trends of Market Decline in the First 6 Months


According to the "China's auto industry production and sales news," from January to June this year, domestic production of trucks (including non-complete vehicles, semi-trailer tractors) were 1,693,777 and 17,472,311, respectively, down 10.43% and 11.92% year-on-year respectively. Among them, the production and sales of wagons were 1,343,921 and 13,684,721 respectively, down 5.81% and 6.96% year-on-year respectively; the production and sales of semi-trailer tractors were 104,664 and 107,832, respectively, down 18.81% and 21.64% respectively; the trucks were not complete. The production and sales volume of vehicles were 245,192 units and 254,678 units, respectively, down by 26.86% and 28.83% respectively year-on-year.

The production and sales volume of heavy goods vehicles (including non-complete vehicles and semi-trailer tractors) from January to June were 343,637 units and 371,605 units, respectively, down 31.95% and 31.62% year-on-year respectively. The production and sales volume of medium-sized goods vehicles (including non-completed vehicles) was 138,957 units and 139,880 units respectively, which was a decrease of 8.97% and 8.83% respectively year-on-year. The production and sales volume of light goods vehicles (including non-completed vehicles) was 935,009 vehicles and 955,825 vehicles, respectively, down 4.81% and 6.53% respectively year-on-year. The production and sales volume of minivans (including non-completed vehicles) were 276,174 and 279,921, respectively, an increase of 9.97% and 5.92% respectively year-on-year.

From the data, it is not a good year for the truck industry in the first half of this year. Especially for heavy trucks, production and sales have fallen by almost one-third. There are many reasons for this downturn in the truck industry.

The biggest difference between trucks and passenger vehicles is that the former is a means of production and production tools, while the latter is a high-end consumer goods. Therefore, the production and sales of trucks are positively correlated with the macroeconomic conditions. Therefore, trucks, especially heavy trucks, are also known as nationals. Economic barometers and weathervanes, but this year's macroeconomic downward pressure has directly pushed down the demand for trucks. As we all know, economic development is mainly driven by investment, consumption and export troika. The investment in large-scale construction projects can increase the market demand for various types of trucks; the increase in consumption increases the amount of logistics transportation, which can stimulate the market demand for various types of highway freight vehicles; the export volume of trucks also gradually occupies the total sales volume. A place. Unfortunately, the three carriages were very weak during the first half of this year.

In troika, investment is the most important. In 2011, the contribution rate of investment to economic growth reached 54.2%. This large-scale project construction investment accounted for a large proportion, estimated to reach 80%. However, since the end of 2011, the real estate industry has undergone profound adjustments, and the price and price of the property market have fallen. Both buyers and sellers have continued to play a game. The market has seen a heavy atmosphere, resulting in a decrease in new construction projects. Affected by the Wenzhou train accident and the debt of the Ministry of Railways, the construction of high-speed railways is also progressing. After the second half of 2011, the pace of rapid deceleration began, and high-speed railway lines such as Jiaoji, Jinqin, and Harqi were halted; the sequelae of some local government debt operations gradually appeared under the pressure of macroeconomic downturn in 2012, and the infrastructure and water conservancy facilities had to be reduced. Reconstruction of the Old City, construction of new areas, etc.; the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio continuously to increase the loan costs of the steel, cement, and raw materials industries, further increasing the pressure to transfer costs to downstream engineering construction projects and slowing investment.

The slowdown in investment has not only clearly reduced the market demand for various types of construction vehicles, but also reduced the demand for road freight cars. Because China is a country with uncoordinated distribution of resources and investment, resources are mainly concentrated in the central and western regions, and investment is concentrated in the east. Therefore, pressures on resource transportation have always been great. Insufficient investment in the east means that the demand for resources in the central and western regions will decrease. The amount naturally decreases.

Theoretically speaking, investing in economic growth is not a long-term plan. The most powerful lever for maintaining economic growth under the conditions of market economy should be consumption. However, in the first half of this year, consumption has not significantly improved. Due to the uneven distribution of China's resources and the lack of rail freight, highway freight has always been the main means of freight transportation in China. However, the downturn in the macro economy has depressed consumer demand and road freight, and the sales volume of road freight cars has dropped. In addition, the road transportation industry’s persistent problems, such as crossing fees, unregulated random charges, and low freight rates, have exploded in the second half of the year to the first half of the year, seriously dampening user updates and new purchases. The willingness of the vehicle.

The chaotic international situation has also dragged on the back of Chinese truck companies. In 2012, the U.S. economy did not improve, Europe’s deep debt crisis could not extricate itself and led to the global economic sluggishness. Inevitably, China’s economic dependence on foreign economic dependence was inevitably affected. The trucking industry as a means of production could not be left alone; North Africa, as the main export market for Chinese trucks, has also severely reduced the overseas sales of Chinese trucks due to its chaos or tension.

In addition to macroeconomic reasons, there are two reasons for the decline in truck sales in the first half of this year. First, in 2010, the government and manufacturers introduced a large number of policies to promote truck consumption, overdraft rigid demand for trucks, and the current decline in sales is Repayment of debt; Second, in 2011, manufacturers completed the planned production and sales plan, and various types of trucks, including 180,000 heavy trucks, were pressured to dealers at the end of the year. Therefore, the sales of truck gold in January this year were all digesting the last year's trucks. .

Faced with the market decline, the truck industry in the first half of this year revealed five new trends. The first is the heavy trucks of natural gas, especially LNG heavy trucks, which are beginning to show their initial strength. They are mainly concentrated on road freight vehicles. This is mainly to solve the problem of high cost of road freight; the second is that lighter products are favored, which is mainly adapted to the investigation of overload and In addition to economic considerations, the actual situation of rising oil prices also has the purpose of actively complying with laws and regulations to avoid increasingly unreasonable unlawful fines and arbitrary charges. Third, the pace of joint ventures among truck companies is accelerating, and the meaning of drunkards all points to heavy-duty truck engines. This reflects the strategic trend of truck companies seeking to win quality in the absence of an indefinite expansion of the market size; the fourth is the development of all types of trucks in the direction of high-end and high-deployment, reflecting the background of the decline in truck sales. Changes in demand and changes in the direction of corporate competition; Fifth, truck companies pay more attention to various financial instruments and marketing innovations. In particular, financial leasing has performed in many forms, reflecting that truck companies are trying to pass new methods outside the fields of technology and production. , new thinking to increase sales efforts.



Marine Airbags Co., Ltd. , http://www.nbmarineairbag.com

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